Air fares across Europe may rise by up to 20% by 2027 due to increasing jet fuel costs driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, warns Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary. This potential hike in ticket prices could strain airline finances, possibly leading to bankruptcies and industry consolidation.
O’Leary anticipates a sharp increase in ticket prices over the next year as airlines grapple with soaring fuel expenses. Jet fuel represents a significant portion of operating costs for carriers, and consistent price rises could severely impact profitability.
Ryanair has hedged 80% of its 2026 fuel needs at $67 per barrel, providing some protection against fluctuating prices since the conflict began involving Iran in February. However, the airline’s hedge for 2027 covers only 15% of its fuel requirements at $85 per barrel, leaving it vulnerable to market price changes from April 2027 onward. Other European airlines are similarly exposed to potential fuel cost increases.
EasyJet is also experiencing rising fuel expenses and has announced plans to cut its winter schedule to manage costs. The airline has secured fuel-price protection for part of its needs during the early and mid parts of 2027.
Ryanair is further reducing its operations in Belgium, planning to cut 20 routes and over one million seats from its winter schedule due to the country’s impending aviation tax increase from €2 to €7 in January.
This outlook presents challenges for both airlines and travelers. While airlines may pass on the additional costs to passengers through higher ticket prices, uncertainty looms over how long consumers can sustain more expensive air travel.
